|
20
Secrets to Retiring Rich
By
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
with Porter Stansberry, Mike Palmer,
Ryan Markish, Greg Yenoli, and Ian Davis
How
to Ensure Your Retirement… No Matter What Happens to
Social Security
If
you’re relying on Social Security for a large chunk of
your retirement money…
You
could be in for an unpleasant surprise.
Consider
the case of Chuck and Kim Garwood from Georgia, who were
profiled recently in USA Today…
WILL
SOCIAL SECURITY REALLY BE THERE FOR YOU?
Chuck
Garwood is 57, an Army veteran who works part time as an
industrial safety consultant. His wife, Kim, is 48, and
works part time at a financial planning office.
The
Garwoods are counting down the days and adding up every
penny in preparation for retirement. Once their daughter
Allison graduates from college, the path will be clear.
The
Garwoods are planning an active retirement. Chuck does
triathlons. Together, Chuck and Kim want to bike across the
country for a month in 2007 and hike the Appalachian Trail
in 2008. While some of the Garwood's friends talk about
working into their 60s, Chuck says, "I've had enough…
I've been working since I was in the seventh grade."
When
the Garwoods retire, they plan to rely on Social Security
for about 20% of their annual income. Chuck is confident the
money will be there.
But
as USA Today recently reported, "maybe
not."
The
paper continues: "Americans who are 50-something – a
point in life when many are registering peak earnings,
seeing their children move into the workplace and beginning
to make detailed plans for their retirement – could be in
for some unwelcome surprises down the road."
The
problem is, Social Security is on the verge of going
bankrupt.
How
did this happen?
Well,
back in 1983, Congress raised social security and Medicare
taxes to create a surplus "trust fund," which
would ensure the stability of Social Security for the next
50 years. And every year since then, the Social Security
Administration has collected more money than they've had to
pay out.
The
problem is, our elected officials haven't saved a penny of
this surplus.
Instead,
the last three presidents (Bush Sr., Clinton, and now George
W.) have spent every single extra Social Security dollar on
other government programs. Now this money is most likely
gone forever.
As
Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer said
recently: "The Social Security system has no trust
fund. No lockbox. When you pay your payroll taxes every
year, the money is not converted into gold bars and shipped
to some desert island, ready for retrieval when you turn 65.
A piece of paper gets deposited in West Virginia saying that
the left hand of the government owes money to the right hand
of the government."
How
did Congress get away with a stunt like this?
Simple…
demographics. For the past 70 years, we've had more people
paying INTO Social Security than the number COLLECTING. But
78 million baby boomers will start retiring next year (about
12,000 per day). And even the Social Security Administration
admits the program will soon go broke unless something
radical is done.
And
even if Social Security is "fixed," allowing you
to collect the maximum possible payout (which is $2,053 per
month before taxes right now), how far is that money really
going to go? Prices for everything from gas to food to
clothing have soared in the past decade. Imagine what these
things will cost 10 years from now.
The
fact is, if you want to make sure you have all the money you
need in retirement (and then some), you have to take matters
into your own hands… you simply can’t count on Social
Security alone.
But
the good news is, I believe I have found the perfect
solution…
20
SECRETS TO A WEALTHY RETIREMENT
If
you are at or near retirement age… or if you simply want
more money deposited into your bank account on a regular
basis… the investment ideas and retirement secrets in this
report can help you achieve your goals, safely.
For
example:
- Trees
That Pay for Your Retirement. You might be surprised
to learn that timber as an investment has beaten the
stock market over the last 45 years – sometimes by as
much as double-digit gains. The Los Angeles Times
said that timber has “long beaten the S&P 500”
and to consider it if you are “looking for an
investment that keeps growing, regardless of recessions
or stock market turmoil.” But you don’t have to
buy timber or timberland directly to take advantage of
this investment… I’ll show you a safe, simple way to
own the best timber investment around, through the stock
market.
- The
Three Best Mutual Funds You Can Buy Today. There are
over 8,000 mutual funds today… most are a complete
waste of your money. These mediocre funds consistently
underperform the market… while their fund managers get
rich off the fees they charge you. But my colleague
Porter Stansberry has found three funds that are the
exception… and perfect for your “safe” money.
Porter has five specific criteria he applies to find the
best-performing mutual funds… based on his research,
these are the best three to buy now.
- The
Best Place to Retire: The Hamptons Life… On Less Than
$100 a Day. Forget Florida or Arizona. I’ve found
the best place in the world to retire, or buy a vacation
home, for literally pennies on the dollar. Here,
you’ll find miles of beautiful beaches… you can eat
a steak dinner at the best restaurants for under $20 per
person… and you can hire a housekeeper/cook for just
$5 per day.
- Portfolio
Insurance: The Secret Currency. This investment –
which most Americans know nothing about – is one of
the secrets behind some of the world’s richest
families. I call this investment a “secret currency”
because it is beyond the reach of any government or
corporation. It’s been used for centuries to profit on
financial windfalls created by governments around the
world. This investment will protect your portfolio in
good times or bad. And according to the Chicago
Tribune, it beats stocks, bonds, gold, silver,
artwork, diamonds, U.S. Treasury bills, real estate, and
oil. I’ll show you a safe, simple way to own the
“secret currency.”
- PLUS…
I’ll also tell you about a CD that pays 13%… a
government bond that pays 11.6%… Eight secrets of
America’s millionaires… and more.
I
believe most people take way too much risk when they invest
their money. My goal is to show you much safer opportunities
– where you can make a small fortune at the same time.
Over
the next several years, I believe the investment
opportunities and secrets in this report can help you secure
a very comfortable retirement… safely.
Good
investing,

Dr.
Steve Sjuggerud
Trees
That Pay For Your Retirement
By
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Research Assistants: Ian Davis and Mike Palmer
People
ask me how I come up with some of the “crazy” investment
ideas I find.
It
works something like this… I read a ton, even though I
feel like I’ve seen 99% of it before. And then I find
something that piques my interest…
Whether
it’s a billion dollars of Argentine property for $180
million, free market reforms in Iceland or Israel, the
elimination of the ability to print money in Ecuador, gold
coins down at their lowest premiums to melt in recorded
history, Harvard increasing its stake in timberland, or…
well, you get the idea. It smells like a big opportunity.
So
I get curious. I have to investigate. There’s got to be a
catch. And there usually is.
Once
it starts looking good, I’m compelled to dig deeper…
There has to be a hole in the story somewhere. Next thing
you know, I’ve taken five trips to Argentina in a year…
or I’m building historical databases of gold coin prices
and thinking about them all the time.
In
recent years, one of my biggest investment obsessions has
been trees and timber. The more research I do, the more
attractive I find timber to be.
A
simple chart will show you why…
This
chart tells you what you need to know… Timber has had
three down years in the last 45 years. Total returns on
timber have beaten the stock market, with less risk. Is that
even possible?
Yes.
It’s not only possible… it’s easy to explain. I’ll
tell you more in a minute.
Three
years ago, I hired a timberland valuation expert, and we
started traveling together. We looked at timberlands from
the Pacific Northwest to the southeastern U.S. We even took
a private plane across Argentina to swoop in and size up the
timberland opportunities and sawmill facilities down there.
In
the course of my research, I think I’ve come across every
major timber deal in the U.S. over the last 10 years (maybe
100 major deals). And I’ve found and recorded most
midsized timber deals in the southeastern U.S. as well. In
short, I know timberland prices.
According
to my homework, midsized tracts of timberland with a variety
of tree ages might go for $1,500 an acre or more to
individual investors, and very large tracts with mixed ages
for $1,200 an acre or more.
So
I find it very interesting that the stock market value of
one of the investments I’m going to tell you about in this
report is LESS THAN $1,000 an acre… a screaming bargain.
We
ought to have to pay a premium to buy a quality timber
company. If we bought timber on our own, we’d likely pay
$1,500 or more per acre. And we wouldn’t be diversified.
Plus, we’d have to pay above and beyond the cost of the
acreage for many services in order to manage the land. And
our return would be hurt by our ignorance of how to
efficiently run the thing.
But
as I’ll show you in this report, it’s actually cheaper
and easier for you to buy trees on the stock market than it
would be for you to buy land and trees on your own.
I’m
going to show you:
1)
Why trees are one of the best retirement investments in the
world, particularly right now, and
2)
How to get started investing in the best timberland
investments right away.
So
let’s get right to it…
WHY
TREES ARE SUCH A GOOD INVESTMENT
It’s
not hard to explain why trees are such good investments.
Here
are the rough numbers on where timberland returns come from:
1%
Land value increase
6% Biologic growth of the trees
3% “Stumpage” price increase (in other words, the price
of the actual tree)
3% Inflation
In
addition, there’s cash flow from regular timber sales, and
more income from additional uses of the land (hunting
licenses, pine straw, and more). The investment proposition
is exceptional, if there’s an easy way to do it. And there
is – you just buy a timber stock.
In
some ways, it seems easier to make solid, safe profits in
timber than in buying a big stock. Think about it…
While
it’s extremely difficult for a large company to grow its
earnings by 6%-8% a year, trees grow 6%-8% a year without
even thinking about it.
And
while it’s extremely difficult for a company to increase
the prices of its goods by 6% every year, the price of wood,
according to investment legend Jeremy Grantham, has
increased by that amount for the last hundred years.
(Specifically, he says “stumpage” prices – the value
of all the wood on the stump – have beaten inflation by 3%
a year over the last century.)
So…
the trees grow 6% a year, the price of the wood goes up 6% a
year (counting inflation)… and we haven’t even talked
about the underlying appreciation of the real estate… or
the advantages of professional timberland management, which
is starting to reap the benefits of genetic engineering now.
When
you really understand this, you can understand how
timberland has actually beaten the stock market since 1960
(as far back as data goes). Stocks did extremely well in
that time… up nearly 12% a year. But the total return on
timberland was even better, at nearly 14% (according to
James W. Sewall Company).
Another
nice thing is timber is completely uncorrelated to the stock
market. It makes sense… the trees have never heard of the
Nasdaq bubble… and they don’t know what a War on Terror
is.
The
good news is that timber hasn’t run up too much lately.
It’s still attractively priced.
And
just look at the returns of timber versus other asset
classes since 1973:
|
1973-2005
|
Source
|
Compound
Return
|
Arithmetic
Average
|
Correlation
to Timber
|
|
Timber
|
NCREIF
Timber
|
14.9%
|
15.4%
|
–
|
|
International
Stocks
|
MSCI
EAFE
|
9.8%
|
10.1%
|
-13%
|
|
Small-Cap
Stocks
|
Russell
2000
|
11.9%
|
12.3%
|
-16%
|
|
Large-Cap
Stocks
|
S&P
500
|
11.0%
|
11.4%
|
-19%
|
|
Long-Term
Bonds
|
LB
G/C Bonds
|
8.4%
|
8.6%
|
-39%
|
|
T-Bills
|
T-Bills
|
6.2%
|
6.4%
|
-9%
|
|
Commercial
Real Estate
|
NCRIEF
National
|
9.5%
|
9.8%
|
-24%
|
|
Equity
REITS
|
NAREIT
Equity
|
13.6%
|
14.0%
|
-21%
|
|
Commodities
|
CRB
Index
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
44%
|
As
an asset, timber has performed very well over the long run.
But it has stalled in recent years, with the exception of
2005.
While
every other asset has run up in value, timber is still
attractive. I still think we have 40% in upside potential in
these stocks over the next few years. And timber REITs are
the best way for you and me to get in.
I’d
like to explain to you, in some detail, the numbers behind
the two biggest timber operations in the United States. Then
I’ll tell you about some of the smaller timber businesses,
and show you which stocks to buy right now…
The
last great bear market in stocks began in the late 1960s and
lasted until about 1980. An investor in stocks during
that time literally lost money, due to inflation.
However,
as the table below shows, an investor in timber never had
a losing year… More often than not, the returns were
in the double digits… with a 55% return in 1973 and a 47%
return in 1977.
|
Timber
Performs Well When Stocks Perform Poorly
|
|
Year
|
Stocks
|
U.S.
Timber
|
|
1966
|
-10%
|
13%
|
|
1967
|
24%
|
11%
|
|
1968
|
11%
|
18%
|
|
1969
|
-8%
|
22%
|
|
1970
|
4%
|
1%
|
|
1971
|
14%
|
4%
|
|
1972
|
19%
|
11%
|
|
1973
|
-15%
|
55%
|
|
1974
|
-26%
|
21%
|
|
1975
|
37%
|
1%
|
|
1976
|
24%
|
16%
|
|
1977
|
-7%
|
47%
|
|
1978
|
7%
|
29%
|
|
1979
|
19%
|
31%
|
The
1970s weren’t a timber fluke. Even in recent decades,
timber has been one of the best assets to own. Consider the
graph on this page… it shows a comparison of the
annualized returns for timber versus several other
investments. As you can see, timber has performed better
than stocks, bonds, and commodities. The total compounded
gain during this period was about 16%.

www.campbellgroup.com/timber_invest
Clearly,
timber is an opportunity now. So how do we play it?
THE
BEST DEAL ON TREES AND TIMBER IN
NORTH AMERICA RIGHT NOW
The
traditional way people buy timber is by buying the trees.
But that’s the hard way. The easy way is to get at timber
through publicly traded companies. I’d rather buy company
stock than trees. I’d even be willing to pay a premium to
buy the stock, since I don’t have to go through the hassle
of buying the land, insuring it, maintaining it, etc.
What
I found when I first started investigating this idea is that
right now there are ways to buy timber through a stock that
are cheaper than buying the land with the trees. It’s
crazy. But it’s true…
Right
now, it is fair to say that bare timberland in the
southeastern U.S. is in the $600-$700 an acre range. If the
site has been prepped and planted, you can add a few hundred
bucks. And if you’re a couple of years in, and the weeds
have been controlled and the trees are growing as they
should, there’s another couple hundred bucks.
Remember,
midsized tracts with a variety of tree ages might go for
$1,500 an acre or more to individual investors, and very
large tracts with mixed ages for $1,200 an acre or more
right now.
So
its amazing that the enterprise value of the biggest timber
company in the United States, Plum Creek (NYSE: PCL),
is just $1,100 an acre.
By
enterprise value per acre, we mean how much you’re paying
for each acre, after you factor in the company’s cash and
cash equivalents, minus debts.
We
ought to have to pay a premium to buy a quality timber
manager like Plum Creek.
After
all, the company is the largest and most geographically
diverse private land owner in the nation. It owns more than
8 million acres of timberland, in 18 U.S. states.
As
I said earlier, if we bought timber on our own, we’d
likely pay $1,500 or more per acre, plus whatever it would
cost to manage the land – and we wouldn’t be
diversified.
But
instead of paying a premium for professional management, by
buying Plum Creek, we’re buying a diversified timber
portfolio at a nice discount.
So
Plum Creek is the best timber buy in North America right
now. Not only does it give you the largest number of trees
(more than 8 million acres), it gives you the best price per
acre, and pays just under a 5% dividend.
Action
to take: Start your timber portfolio with Plum Creek
Timber (NYSE: PCL). You’ll own timberland in 18 states,
and collect nearly a 5% dividend as the trees grow
exponentially, year after year.
The
3 Best Mutual Funds
You Can Buy Today
By
Porter Stansberry
After
spending the past 10 years as an independent investment
analyst, I’ve learned something very important about the
mutual fund industry:
Nearly
all mutual fund products – products marketed as the savior
to your retirement – are a complete waste of time and
money.
There
are a lot of reasons why I despise mutual funds. I hate the
way lousy mutual fund managers can still earn millions of
dollars. I hate the way people who own mutual funds smugly
assume they’re being smart about their finances. I hate
the way mutual funds spread their commission dollars around
Wall Street, corrupting analysts and bankers, creating
myriad conflicts of interest.
But
at the very core of my violent distaste for 95% of all
mutual funds is the fraudulent promise at the heart of the
industry: The lie that you can get rich by doing nothing
and knowing nothing about investing.
It’s
simply not true.
Nor
is it reasonable to believe that you can trust someone at an
institution to handle your finances alongside thousands of
other investors with any genuine fiduciary care. It’s a
myth – one of the most valuable myths of the modern
financial era. The lie they tell is very compelling: Just
send us all your money, and we’ll take care of it.
Investors go for it because it relieves them of their second
biggest worry – that they’ll lose their wealth. (The
first worry is losing their health.)
When
you buy a mutual fund, you’re buying the fund as it’s
comprised today, at current prices. But no mutual fund only
owns securities that it considers to be attractive at
today’s prices. No, in fact most of the assets of the fund
should be long-held investments that should have increased
in price significantly since they were added to the fund.
But, as a new investor, you’re buying all the assets at
the current prices – including all of those stocks whose
prices aren’t currently attractive to the managers. In
other words, you're buying all of the fund's faded gems at
full retail value.
That’s
no good. And from there, it gets worse.
If
you’re buying an “index fund,” which typically tracks
the performance of the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, you’re buying a group of the biggest
and supposedly best stocks around. This means they’re also
the most expensive and the least likely to appreciate much.
Even
worse, most indexes (like the S&P 500) are “market cap
weighted,” which means the bigger the market cap a stock
has, the more weight it carries in the index. Said another
way, the more expensive a company is, the more weight it
carries in the index. That means when you buy an index fund,
most of your money is going into the most expensive stocks.
That doesn’t make any sense, does it?
There
is indisputable evidence that proves small-cap value stocks
will outperform any other type of similar financial asset.
However, these stocks are typically too small for any large
institutional investor to buy. Thus, small-cap value is out
of bounds for index funds and even for most mutual fund
families.
When
you buy a mutual fund, you’re automatically condemning
yourself to subpar investment performance, a truth that’s
proven in mutual fund performance studies. Dalbar, a Boston
consultancy, did a study which showed the average mutual
fund investor made less than 6% a year, on average, during
the greatest bull market ever in stocks – from 1981
through 2000.
The
incredibly poor showing is due, in part, to the contrary
motivations of the fund companies. They get paid based on
total assets under management, not investment performance.
As a result, the fund companies advertise the hottest
sectors heavily as they go higher. They know investors will
chase performance.
Fortunately,
there are some notable exceptions. There is a relatively
small group of top-notch managers who, because of their
tremendous skill, are no longer concerned with garnering
assets and have the freedom to do the right thing for the
current and prospective customer.
That’s
exactly what this report is all about, and in just a moment,
you’ll learn about three such funds. The long-term
performance of these funds is among the best in the world...
they’re extremely risk-averse... and they have their
shareholders’ best interest at heart.
You
should be able to buy each of these funds through your
regular broker.
WHAT
MAKES A MUTUAL FUND GREAT
With
over 8,000 mutual funds in the U.S. alone, finding a winning
fund can be a bit tricky. Based on my experience, I’ve
developed the following five guidelines that have helped
narrow this field down in order to target the best funds
that money can buy.
Here
they are...
First,
a fund should have an expense ratio no greater than 1%. This
way, more of your investment dollars are working for you and
not for the fund’s management.
Secondly,
you want a value-oriented fund. This means that the fund’s
holdings are selling at below market values, are currently
out of favor and have a higher probability of appreciating
up to what the analysts estimate the fund’s holdings
should be selling at.
Third,
a fund should have a manager who’s been in place for at
least the past 10 years. This shows that the fund’s
current holdings, which were purchased by the existing
portfolio manager, have produced consistently good returns
for several years and have established a credible track
record worthy of your retirement dollars.
Fourth,
a fund’s performance should show steady growth with a
minimum amount of peaks and valleys. Investors often make
the mistake of choosing a fund with the highest returns. But
when a fund shows steady growth for many years, we know that
its growth can be attributed to the fund manager’s
experience rather than speculative investing.
And
last but most importantly, a fund’s history should be void
of big quarterly losses that often result in negative
returns during those periods. This creates an unstable
environment in which to invest your retirement dollars.
By
using the above criteria, I have found the three best funds
in the world. Together, these funds are a
“buy-it-and-forget-it” mutual fund portfolio. You could
put all of your money in these three funds and never make
another investment – ever.
The
Oakmark Select Fund
Since
this fund's inception in 1996, the Oakmark Select Fund has
returned an average of around 18% a year – that's almost
good enough to double your money every three and a half
years.
There
are three reasons why I think you should invest in the
Oakmark Select Fund today, and keep your money there for at
least five years.
1)
It’s a focused, non-diversified portfolio,
concentrating only on a few high-quality stocks.
The
best investors in the world don't over-diversify. Warren
Buffett, the second-richest man in the world, provides a
good example with his holding company. Berkshire Hathaway
holds just 19 common stocks, rather than the 200 or more
different stocks you'll find in a typical insurance company
stock portfolio.
The
Oakmark Select Fund holds 20 stocks. It has 62% of its
assets in its top-10 holdings and, according to CNN Money,
“slammed its peers on a three-year annualized basis and
beat out the S&P 500 during a growth oriented bull
market.”
2)
It has a strict value discipline, buying only when a
stock sells at a big discount to intrinsic value.
For
the Oakmark Select Fund, its manager, Bill Nygren, only buys
the highest-quality stocks, and only when they're selling
for at least a 40% discount to intrinsic value.
Morningstar
analyst Scott Cooley calls Nygren one of the smartest
managers around, whose willingness to seek opportunities in
growth areas has led to consistently good returns.
3)
It has heavy insider ownership, with fund employees
investing their own money along with public investment
dollars.
According
to Oakmark's website (www.oakmark.com),
“the employees of the Funds' adviser, Harris Associates
L.P., the Funds' officers and trustees and their families
have over $200 million invested in The Oakmark Funds.”
The
greatest investors always “eat their own cooking,” and
Oakmark is no different.
Buy
the Oakmark Select Fund Now (OAKLX). The minimum initial
investment is $1,000, and there are three ways you can buy
this fund:
1.
Through your regular broker,
2. By visiting www.oakmark.com
or,
3. By calling 1-800-OAKMARK (1-800-625-6275).
I
recommend that you BUY the Oakmark Select Fund (OAKLX) and
hold it for at least five years.
The
Third Avenue Real Estate Fund
This
mutual fund has returned an annual average of 20%. That’s
four percentage points per year more than the average
returns of similar funds. And the fund achieved its gains
with 25% less volatility than its peers.
In
other words, if you started with $10,000 in this fund back
when it first began in 1998, you’d have about $50,000
today.
The
Third Avenue Real Estate Fund (TAREX) is the best
no-load real estate fund available.
After
having closed itself off to new investors due to
unprecedented cash inflows during the first half of 2005,
this fund has now re-opened in order to take advantage of
the favorable market environment that now exists in real
estate-related securities.
Most
real estate funds focus on high-yielding REITs, but
portfolio manager Michael Winer puts the bulk of his money
into real estate operating companies. Unlike REITs,
operating companies aren’t required to distribute nearly
all of their profits to shareholders; therefore, the
companies can retain their profits to finance growth.
“That’s
a distinct advantage,” says Winer, who has had a long and
diverse background in real estate. Previously, Winer has
done accounting for several real estate firms, has run a
real estate development business, and has served as a real
estate stock analyst.
A
few of the fund’s top holdings are some of the most valued
real estate companies in the world, including: Forest City
Enterprises, ProLogis, Brookfield Asset Management, the St.
Joe Company, and Vornado Realty Trust.
With
an eye for value, Michael Winer gives us all the confidence
we need to recommend you buy the Third Avenue Real Estate
Fund (TAVFX).
The
minimum initial investment is $10,000 ($2,500 for IRAs).
For
more information on this fund, go to www.oakmark.com.
The
Longleaf Partners International Fund
The
last fund I’d like to tell you about re-opened to new
investors in July 2006, due to turbulence in foreign stock
markets.
According
to its management, the Longleaf Partners International
Fund (LLINX) has now completed its assembly of the
highest-quality portfolio of international businesses that
it’s ever owned.
“The
volatility in markets around the globe has produced
additional high-quality companies that are adequately
discounted and attractively priced,” says Mason Hawkins,
co-manager of this $3 billion fund.
Longleaf’s
managers, all of whom have been with the fund since its 1998
inception, look for stocks that trade at 40% or more below
their estimate of the underlying company’s value.
“The
fund’s portfolio currently holds a combination of the most
vested corporate managements and more quality holdings than
at any time in its history,” says Hawkins.
Longleaf’s
top-five holdings are Japanese companies NipponKoa and
Olympus, French carmaker Renault, Canadian insurer Fairfax
Financial, and global computer giant Dell.
The
fund’s minimum initial investment is $10,000. This may be
pricey, but the firm does treat its shareholders like
partners, something that can be seen in its willingness to
close funds to new investors even when that means less
revenue.
According
to Kiplinger’s, this fund is “a solid choice for your
overseas money.”
The
Longleaf Partners International Fund holds 20 investment
positions. Its average annual return since inception is
roughly 15%.
At
the May 2006 shareholders meeting, Mason Hawkins made it
clear that he and his managers have virtually their entire
net worths in Longleaf Funds. After all, Longleaf’s #1
governing principle is, “we will treat your investment as
if it were our own.”
I
recommend that you buy Longleaf Partners International
Fund (LLINX) now and hold it for at least five years to
make about 15%-18% a year. I could hardly provide a better
vehicle for a safe, long-term investment.
There
are three ways you can buy this fund:
1.
Through your regular broker,
2. By visiting www.longleafpartners.com
or,
3. Calling Longleaf directly at 1-800-445-9469.
There
you have it – the three best regular mutual finds you can
own right now. Each of these funds should do very well for
you over the next five years.
The
11.6% Government Bond
By
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Last
spring, Iceland’s Prime Minister gave a speech…
In
it, he made an important prediction.
If
his prediction turns out to be correct, we’ll make a
fortune, as I’ll show. If he is wrong, we’ll still make
a heck of a lot of money – most likely double-digit
returns for the next eight years. Let me explain…
Prime
Minister Halldór Ásgrímsson’s topic was “What kind of
Iceland should we expect in 2015?” In that speech, he
boldly predicted that Iceland would become a full member of
the European Union by 2015.
Nobody
in the world is paying attention to this prediction right
now… and nobody is playing the “Convergence Trade”
I’m about to show you.
If
Iceland joins the European Union, as he predicts, it will
become part of the euro currency. You don’t have to be a
rocket scientist to get this one… A simple look at a chart
that I’ll show you later on tells the story. It, you’ll
see this: In the few years before tiny countries give up
their tiny currencies to join the euro, you make a fortune
in their bonds. It happens every time. But before we get
there, let me explain what’s going on in Iceland now…
WHY
ICELAND NEEDS TO JOIN THE EU NOW
Ásgrímsson’s
prediction might not sound so bold at first… But the
previous Prime Minister of Iceland was dead set against
joining the European Union. The current Prime Minister is
putting the idea on the table… and it really needs to be
there.
You
see, Iceland is part of the European Economic Area anyway,
so it already has to abide by a mountain of laws out of
Brussels. Yet Iceland has not made it official yet… Most
importantly, Iceland is not part of the euro currency…
yet.
While
the economy has soared recently, Iceland’s little currency
(the krona) has been like a tax on its people. Iceland
suffers because it has its own tiny currency, which is
subject to much wilder swings than the euro, and,
importantly, interest rates in Iceland are significantly
higher than in the euro area.
In
March 2006, The Economist did a great job of summing
up Iceland’s situation:
“It
is remote and tiny, with just 300,000 people. Yet
Iceland’s recent performance is impressive by any
standards. One of Europe’s richest countries boasts one of
its fastest-growing economies. Top marginal rates of income
and corporate tax have been cut to unNordic levels of around
36% and 18%, respectively. Unemployment is in effect near
zero.”
“Yet
over the past two weeks severe financial tremors have jolted
Iceland….”
The
chart below shows those tremors, and just what the currency
has been through. Note the sharp drop on the right-hand
side.
Iceland’s
currency is the thick line, and the euro is the thin line.
As you can see, from 2002 to 2005, Iceland’s currency
acted exactly like the euro. So nobody worried about it.
In
2005 and early 2006, it started to outperform the euro, as
investors were attracted to the high interest rates in
Iceland. People worried about the currency even less.
But
last spring, the currency fell significantly – “severe
financial tremors,” as The Economist called it.
The
Prime Minister gave his speech before the currency started
to explode. He knew this type of thing was possible. In his
speech, looking out to 2015, he said:
|
“The
principal question is whether we will continue
with our independent currency or whether we will
join the European Union as full members. We must
recognize that fluctuations in [our currency]
represent a disturbance, and the possibilities for
small currencies in a free financial market are
questionable. I predict that we will be full
members of the European Union by 2015.”
|
The
Prime Minister is dead right, on all counts. After the crash
in the currency last year, I expect the debate about
ditching the krona in favor of the euro will become serious.
The current system is simply a tax on the people of Iceland.
And
here is where the “convergence” starts… where the
profits come in. Let me explain…
THE
EURO CONVERGENCE TRADE
The
euro officially started on January 1, 1999. Man, let me tell
you, countries like Italy and Spain sure got a free ride…
Italy
and Spain never had strong currencies. The Italian lira was
a chronic loser. Interest rates in Italy and Spain were
usually very high. They had to be in order to attract
investors and compensate them for taking a risk in owning
their currency.
When
the euro came along, Italy and Spain got the chance to trash
their currencies and replace them with what was basically
Germany’s currency, which was much more stable.
In
the mid-1990s, it didn’t seem possible that Italian and
Spanish interest rates would converge with German interest
rates once Italy and Spain joined the euro. But that’s
exactly what happened.
As
the following chart shows, as the introduction into the euro
approached on January 1, 1999, interest rates in Italy and
Spain fell from about 11% down to about 4%.
Next
up was Greece. Greece was such a disaster, it simply
wasn’t allowed to join the club on the first go in 1999.
Greece had to wait two years to get in.
What
happened to Greek interest rates in the few years leading up
to joining the euro was exactly the same as what had
happened a few years before in Italy and Spain. Interest
rates went from sky high down to 4%, in line with German
levels.
The
next countries to join the euro will be a handful of Eastern
European countries, like Poland. Oh, will you look at that?
The same pattern is emerging… interest rates have gone
from sky-high down toward euro levels… but Poland is not
part of the euro yet.
You
see the pattern… As soon as it’s clear that a country
is giving up its little currency in favor of the euro,
interest rates in that country converge to euro levels.
If
Iceland’s leader is right, Iceland will follow the same
path. If that happens, owners of Icelandic bonds –
particularly long-dated bonds – will make an absolute
fortune.
Right
now, Iceland has some bonds that mature all the way out to
2044. If we buy now, it looks like these bonds will pay us
11.6% interest in 2007 and 2008. This interest is only the
beginning…
Here’s
how you can make a fortune owning these:
If
long-term interest rates in Iceland fall to euro levels of
around 4%, and you have a bond that pays you 11.6% until
2044, then that bond will be worth a lot of money. Because
people will pay you a heck of a lot of money to get your
11.6% bond for the next few decades in a 4% world.
We
must buy these long-dated bonds now, before interest rates
fall in Iceland toward more normal, European levels.
I’ve
met with the folks in Reykjavik at the brokerage firm
Glitnir (www.glitnir.is/English/)
many times over the years.
The
folks at Glitnir are bright. They have a good handle on the
economy (it’s very small, so predictions are more
reliable). They’re predicting short-term interest rates
will peak early this year, before they start declining fast.
The
Central Bank of Iceland is hell-bent on stopping inflation
and slowing down its economy. So it pushed interest rates up
to 11.6%. That, they believe, will be the end of Iceland’s
rate-raising cycle. Interest-rate cuts are expected to start
soon.
The
right bonds for us to buy for maximum gains right now are
the Icelandic bonds that mature in 2044. In particular, we
want inflation-indexed bonds… this way, we get paid an
interest rate, PLUS we get paid back the rate of inflation.
Right
now, the 2044 inflation-indexed bonds are paying about 4.3%
interest PLUS inflation. If you buy today, you’ll earn
11.6% in total interest each year in 2007 and 2008.
Yes,
we’ll get 11.6%. Iceland’s inflation-adjusted bonds pay
the highest rates of interest in the world, at 4.3% plus
inflation. Inflation-indexed bonds in England and in Sweden
only pay about 1.5%. So there’s plenty of room for
Icelandic interest rates to fall… and for us to make large
capital gains along the way.
Again,
we’ll make 11.6% in interest in 2007 and 2008. We
should make double-digit capital gains… and if we see a
further fall in the dollar, we could have significant
currency gains as well. It wouldn’t be impossible to see
25% a year… for the next three years!
I
think this bond will beat all other government bonds over
the next eight years. If you’re looking for a safe place
to put money outside the dollar that still has significant
upside, this bond is it.
If
the Prime Minister of Iceland is right, and Iceland joins
the European Union (and then scraps its currency), we’ll
make a killing.
If,
for some reason, the Prime Minister is wrong, and we only
hold this bond a few years instead of eight years, then the
chances are great we’ll still make double-digit returns on
it.
The
bond I’m recommending is called the “HFF” bond, and it
matures in 2044. There’s a nice website on Icelandic bonds
at www.bonds.is.
It’s
time to get in now, to lock in the current high rates.
Sure, you can buy a simple CD to capture the high short-term
rates in Iceland. EverBank offers an Iceland CD that pays
double-digit interest rates right now. And that’s great.
But
if you want to make the biggest total return, you need to be
invested in the longest-dated bonds you can buy. The old
rule is, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up. The
longer the bond life, the bigger your capital gains.
If
you buy my recommended Icelandic bonds right now, you’re
looking at total interest of 11.6%, between the yield and
the inflation payback. But that’s not where the big money
will be made…
The
big money will be made when interest rates start to fall,
and we start to make capital gains on these bonds. So far,
we haven’t made money this way yet. On the bright side, if
you haven’t bought yet, you haven’t missed it.
There
is another factor… When you buy bonds in a foreign
currency, the currency fluctuations factor into your
returns, too. So far, the currency has gone against us. But
it has been strengthening recently… no doubt because money
is attracted to those incredibly high rates of interest.
I’m not making a currency prediction here… the currency
could help or hurt our returns. But between the high rates
of interest and the capital gains we can make, I’m not too
worried about the currency fluctuations over the long run.
I
think we have the potential to make more than 30% a year in
total returns for a few years if I’m right – in
government-backed bonds from a safe, stable country.
HOW
TO BUY THESE BONDS
See
if your regular broker can buy these. If not, here are two
brokers who I know can buy bonds like this – and they have
a great reputation.
First
is my father’s firm… I know these guys well (of
course)… Beyond my dad (Dave Sjuggerud), I’ve worked
with Howard and Sam for over a dozen years. (I actually
lived with Howard and a few other guys just out of college.)
You can reach them at 877-539-1004, or dsjuggerud@lasallest.com.
Another
good source is Jeff Winn at International Assets. He’s
been there for over a dozen years. I also know Jeff well.
(In fact, Jeff was one of the groomsmen in my wedding.) You
can reach Jeff at 800-432-0000, or jwinn@iaac.com.
(These
guys don’t compensate me in any way for mentioning them…
I recommend them because they do well what others can’t do
well. I prefer it this way… so there are no conflicts of
interest.)
These
guys are good sources that can talk you through how it
works, and that’s often good to have when it comes to
international dealings.
Wrapping
up, this might be the smartest trade for the next eight
years… As Iceland starts moving toward adopting the euro,
interest rates in Iceland will converge with euro rates.
We’ll
earn huge rates of interest now, we’ll earn huge capital
gains as rates come down, and we could have nice currency
gains to boot if the U.S. dollar weakens against other
currencies. It’s a no-brainer. Get on board, if you
haven’t already.
13%
CD Yields!
By:
Steve Sjuggerud
If
you’re interested in the Iceland bonds idea, you might
also want to learn more about EverBank’s Iceland CDs.
As
of this writing (December 2006), this CD is paying 13.1%
over three months.
As
Iceland’s central bank is fighting inflation, it is likely
that interest rates will remain that high. EverBank only
offers three-month CDs for Iceland, but you are allowed to
roll them over into another three-month CD with no costs,
charges, or penalties.
I
have put many millions of dollars to work in Iceland in my
days managing money. I would rather have my money there than
in the States. It’s a safer country, and its government is
less indebted than ours. (It is one of the few countries in
the world where the government is in the enviable position
of being not far from having more assets than debts. The
U.S. is a long way from that club!)
Visit
EverBank.com for more
information (click on Currencies, the Currency CDs), or call
888-882-3837.
MITTS
– The Upside of Stocks
Without the Downside Risks
By
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Most
people don’t believe me when I tell them one of the
biggest secrets of Wall Street – that you can actually buy
stocks 100% risk-free.
By
using these secret stock funds, you get all the profits when
the value of the market goes up. And when the market goes
down, you’re guaranteed to never get back less than what
you started with. Amazing... but true.
If
you want to invest in stocks in a volatile market, this is
the way to do it. Although there’s never been a “sure
thing” in the stock market, this is about as close as it
gets.
Here’s
how these funds work...
LIMITED
DOWNSIDE, UNLIMITED UPSIDE INVESTING
The
first rule of making money is simple: Don’t lose money.
I’d like to share with you what I believe is one of the
best “don’t lose money” stock market investments out
there today...
What
would you say if I told you I could give you all the upside
of the stock market, for the next two years, and guarantee
you no downside risk?
The
investments I’m talking about are called Market Index
Target-Term Securities, or MITTS. They’ve been around for
about a decade, although you rarely find anyone talking
about them. Pioneered by the folks at Merrill Lynch, MITTS
are essentially zero-coupon bonds with five- or seven-year
calls on a major market index attached. Sound complicated?
It’s not. Let me show you...
MITTS
sell for around $10.
About
$7 of your investment goes to buy a zero-coupon bond that
will yield $10 at maturity in, say, 2009.
A
“zero-coupon” bond, by the way, is one in which the
interest rate is zero. Instead, you get a fixed return at
maturity. It’s like loaning your friend $50... with him
agreeing to pay you back $60 next Christmas. There’s no
interest rate attached to your loan... you’ve just agreed
on a fee and a date. That’s essentially all a zero-coupon
bond is.
The
other $3 goes to buy “call options.” Call options are
basically small bets – on the options market, with
potentially high returns – that a particular market index
will go higher. At the maturity of the MITTS, you get back
your original investment, plus whatever percentage the
particular index has risen.
That’s
it in a nutshell.
Still
confused? The investment is a lot simpler than it sounds.
And all you have to know is that you are guaranteed to get
back what you started with – and if the index your MITTS
is attached to goes up, you’ll make a profit. If it goes
down... you won’t. But you’ll never get back less than
what you started with.
You
can buy a MITTS that is tied to just about any stock
market... the Dow Jones... the Nasdaq... the Nikkei in
Japan... the Russell 2000 (small stocks)... the list goes on
and on. In all there are 27 MITTS you can own.
So
if you buy a Dow Jones MITTS, you get back your original
investment plus whatever percentage the Dow Jones Industrial
Average goes up.
If
the Dow goes up 30%, you get a 30% gain. Your $10 becomes
$13. If it goes up 100%, you double your money. Your $10
becomes $20. Say the Dow drops 20%. What do you get? Your
original investment... $10. In other words, no matter how
low the Dow drops, you won’t lose a penny.
And
don’t think you’re stuck holding MITTS between now and
two years from now. MITTS trade exactly like a stock, on the
American Stock Exchange. You can buy and sell them during
market hours every day.
Here’s
another way to look at how MITTS work…
Let’s
say Merrill Lynch is launching a new MITTS, and raises $100
million for it. The maturity date of the MITTS would be set
based on the maturity of some U.S. Treasury zero-coupon
bond.
Let’s
say Merrill’s new MITTS has a seven-year life. Merrill
would then invest $80 million into the zero-coupon bond that
definitely matures at $100 million. This zero-coupon bond is
what allows the MITTS to mature at a guaranteed $10 a share.
No matter what, Merrill can return investors their original
investment.
$15
million would be spent buying (or creating) a call option on
whatever index the MITTS is based on – the S&P 500
Index, the Dow Jones Index, the Nasdaq, or even a foreign
stock market index. The other $5 million would go in
Merrill’s pockets for profit.
If
the $15 million option on the stock market expired
worthless, Merrill still would have $100 million at maturity
to give to the MITTS shareholders at the end, because of the
zero-coupon bond. Confused yet? Again it’s not nearly as
complicated as it sounds.
What’s
important to remember is that there are only two ways to
lose money in MITTS...
1)
If you buy the MITTS at a price above $10, and the value of
the index falls between now and maturity, causing the
MITTS’ ending value to be $10 a share.
2)
Or, total catastrophe... either Merrill goes out of business
or the U.S. Treasury doesn’t pay on its zero-coupon bonds.
That’s
it.
As
I mentioned, there are 27 possible MITTS to choose from.
Below, I detail my three favorite MITTS to buy right now,
which offer you the best chance of upside gains...
A
NO-RISK WAY TO OWN THE WHOLE
STOCK MARKET FOR THENEXT TWO YEARS…
You’ll even make money if stocks fall!
Most
investors feel they absolutely have to have some exposure to
the stock market. If you feel this way, then there is no
better investment for you than this one…
It’s
an investment in S&P 500 MITTS (MTSP). The story is
really simple here… These MITTS closed recently at $10.44,
which is pretty close to their fair value ($10.00).
Since
these MITTS are close to fair value, almost, by buying now,
you will get all of the upside of the S&P 500 Index over
the next three years, and none of the downside…
Yes,
it’s true… you can have your cake and eat it too… At
current prices, it’s about as safe as cash in the bank,
yet has all the upside potential of the stock market.
If
you own a stock market index fund, you need to sell it. At
its current price, the S&P 500 MITTS is a much better
deal. The potential downside is almost nonexistent.
Buy
the S&P 500 MITTS (MTSP) at current prices, and plan on
holding until maturity (August 2008). You will pocket nearly
all of the upside of the stock market, and if the market
goes down, you will actually make money too. Take the money
and run (sell) at $13 – when the $10 floor on our shares
is getting too far away.
OUR
SECOND CAN’T-LOSE IDEA…
All the upside of the stock market, with 1%
annual gains if everything goes wrong
Here’s
another idea… if MTSP is getting bid up too much,
there’s a similar alternative… Dow MITTS…
These
Dow MITTS closed recently at $10.40. You are, of course,
guaranteed $10 at maturity… so by buying at $10.40 today
and holding to maturity, your worst-case scenario is a 3.8%
loss.
You
will get all of the upside of the Dow Jones Industrials
between now and maturity, and you will minimize the downside
risk of the stock market.
If
you are certain that you will own the stock market in some
form over the next three years, then why would you invest
over that period any other way than with 100% of the upside,
and alomost none of the downside?
Buy
the Dow MITTS (MTDB) at current prices. Sell at $13, when
our floor of $10 a share is getting too far away.
JAPANESE
STOCKS HAVE JUMPED,
BUT YOU HAVEN’T MISSED IT…
Here’s
how to buy now at pre-jump levels
and have practically no downside risk
For
a bit of history here, Japan’s main stock market index,
the Nikkei 225, peaked at 38,957 on the last day of 1989.
Today – over 16 years later – the Nikkei is only around
16,000. So Japanese stocks are still down over 50% from
their highs.

For
years, it looked like Japan would never recover. Starting in
2005, it appears that a new bull market is finally in place
in Japan.
It’s
my belief that Japanese stocks could continue to do well, as
I’ll explain. But if I’m wrong, you’ll hardly lose a
thing.
Let’s
go over the details:
My
favorite Japan MITTS has the symbol NKS. As I
write, NKS is currently priced at $10.33.
Your
worst-case outcome in NKS is that you’ll get 10 bucks back
(as usual). Your best case is triple-digit gains (in the
case of this particular MITTS, you’ll get 109.5% of the |